This is an alternate version to the one featured on the roar here
2013 will go down in rugby history as the year of the power
swift. From the Lions winnings a series for the first time in 16 years and the
disgraceful power grab attempt by the English and French clubs over the
governance and financial control of European rugby.
This power shift is even evident in international rugby. The
gap between nations is closing on the field. And rapidly. Tier 2 nations like
Samoa, USA and Japan are making huge strides and are recording victories, or
are about to, over their tier one rivals.
This gap is also true of Tier 1 nations. Aside from New
Zealand, any team from 2nd or 3rd in the rankings, all the way down to Wales in
7th can beat each other and it wouldn’t be considered an upset. Each one of
Wales, England, Ireland, Australia and France will feel that they are good
enough to be named third best in the world, and that they are the best chance
of beating South Africa and maybe upsetting New Zealand.
Which brings us to this weekend's game; Ireland v Australia.
Ireland are ranked 6th in the world, to Australia's 4th. Recent history between
the teams is close, with 2 wins to each side in the last 5 games and a draw.
Australia haven't beaten Ireland in Dublin since 2005, with Gordon D'Arcy, Rory
Best, Tommy Bowe and Tatafu Polotau-Nau the only survivors with a chance of
playing at the weekend.
The most recent game, a 15-6 win to Ireland in the RWC 2011
counted as an upset, but would a victory for Ireland this weekend also be
treating as an upset?
I would argue it isn't. Australia's record in Dublin isn't
great, and their 2013 record is dreadful. Ewen McKenzie has brought a bit of
spark back into the Wallabies with 18 tries in their last 4 games, although if
you take out the two 7 try drubbings, they've only scored 13 tries in their 10
other games in 2013.
Ireland's record in 2013 isn't great either, with a dismal 6
Nations all the way back in February/ March ending Declan Kidney's reign. A lot
of time has passed since then, and the leaders amongst the Irish squad were in
Australia, where Sean O'Brien, Paul O'Connell, Jonny Sexton, Conor Murray,
Tommy Bowe, Brian O'Driscoll and Jamie Heaslip all played a part in a
victorious Lions test series; while Peter O'Mahony, Fergus McFadden, Ian
Madigan, Paddy Jackson, Mike Ross, Devin Toner and Mike McCarthy played parts
in Ireland's tour of the US and Canada. Joe Schmidt has brought a freshness to
the squad, and there as an air of calmness as they went about their business
against Samoa, with no hang-ups on form, or worries about the pressures to win.
If the papers are to be believed, Ireland will target the
Wallaby lineout and scrum, and the battle of the breakdown will be fierce. For
years Ireland haven't had a "genuine openside" and have instead used
the breakdown talents of Cian Healy, Rory Best, Paul O'Connell, Jamie Heaslip
and Brian O'Driscoll. Michael Hooper will have a lot on his plate.
Australian media expects Ireland to use the
"choke" tackle that served them well in 2011 to go after the
Wallabies in the scrum time and again. While this will no doubt be a tactic, I
suspect that they will use another alternative style of tackling to get as many
offloads as possible. Ireland have been trying the chop tackle technique
against Samoa; so much so that attentive listeners to the referees microphone
on Saturday could hear shouts encouraging them to tackle low so the next man in
could get over the ball quickly. This helped to win 12 turnovers in open play,
and a few other penalties for holding on.
Australia will look to play an expansive game with
everything going through Genia and Cooper. Ireland’s defence will need a
massive improvement if we’re to get anything out of it. Ireland need to avoid
the stray kicking from last week, and try to limit Israel Folau’s involvement
in the game. He showed in the first Lions test what he can do when given limited
opportunities.
The weather is set for cloudy with a good chance for rain,
which sets up an intriguing test match. While Ireland wouldn't lose too much
confidence with a loss, a win would signify the power shifting from the
Australians. Bring on the Aussies.
